the darkerside to rants

… The Economist puts a picture like this:

as it’s “teaser” for an article on the world economy.

But, welcome as it is, optimism contains two traps, one obvious, the other more subtle. The obvious trap is that confidence proves misplaced—that the glimmers of hope are misinterpreted as the beginnings of a strong recovery when all they really show is that the rate of decline is slowing. The subtler trap, particularly for politicians, is that confidence and better news create ruinous complacency. Optimism is one thing, but hubris that the world economy is returning to normal could hinder recovery and block policies to protect against a further plunge into the depths.

[...]

Add all this up and the case for optimism fades quickly. The worst is over only in the narrowest sense that the pace of global decline has peaked. Thanks to massive—and unsustainable—fiscal and monetary transfusions, output will eventually stabilise. But in many ways, darker days lie ahead. Despite the scale of the slump, no conventional recovery is in sight. Growth, when it comes, will be too feeble to stop unemployment rising and idle capacity swelling. And for years most of the world’s economies will depend on their governments.

This, after all is coming from “The Economist” a bastion of gung-ho economic news and a publication that not two years ago was harping on about the virtues of globalization, free capital flow etc. etc.

It is, somewhat amusing and scary at the same time to realize that the reality is starting to sink in with the “opinion makers” at places like The Economist. Will it change the outcome? No, I don’t think we have gotten even close to the truth in the media, as long as I hear people tell me that “If the media would just stop reporting the bad news all would be fine” we haven’t arrived…. And denial is still running strong and I can’t blame them really; if everything you’ve believed in so far is on the verge of going away / being wrong; then I’d cling to any little glimmer of hope as well, even if it means false hope.

After all, hope dies last.